While the macro-economic environment in the U.S. is one of heightened uncertainty, partly driven by lack of clarity on economic policy, Real GDP increased 3.0% in 2Q2025 and is forecasted to remain positive moving forward. Nonetheless, the strength of the underlying economy may be far more modest than the 2Q GDP print implies. For example, when excluding a tariff-induced net trade imbalance, Real GDP declined roughly 2% in the quarter.
