The first half of 2025 witnessed a complex interplay of geopolitical shifts, natural disasters, and continuing global challenges that led to significant whiplash in the U.S. stock market and unusual swings in the bond market. The return of Donald J. Trump to the U.S. Presidency has led to a reigniting of trade tensions, particularly with China, that are impacting global commerce. Furthermore, with peace talks proving unsuccessful thus far, wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan are each entering their third or fourth year. In May, India and Pakistan engaged in a brief but intense military conflict, marking their most serious escalation in decades. During June, the Iran–Israel War, also referred to as the Twelve-Day War, was an armed conflict during which Israel launched surprise attacks on key military and nuclear facilities in Iran, culminating with the U.S. taking offensive action by bombing three Iranian nuclear sites. Finally, during the first half of 2025, the U.S. experienced a record…
